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Numbers favor Florida by 5 points

P.J. Washington (Vicky Graff Photo)

By RICHARD CHEEKS, Contributing Writer

With one game remaining in the SEC regular season, Kentucky, Florida and Arkansas are currently tied for 3rd place with 10-7 records. The Cats and the Gators close out the season in Gainesville, and Arkansas closes its season at Missouri. If Missouri beats Arkansas, then both Kentucky and Florida will have the precious double byes, but if Arkansas beats Missouri, the Hogs will get the #4 seed and the winner of the Kentucky-Florida war will get the #3 seed.

Since the Cats and Gators tip off at noon, and Arkansas-Missouri does not start until later in the evening, the Cats and Gators must both approach this game on the basis that a win is required and the loser will be playing in the #5 seed position next Thursday. For this reason, post season play effectively begins tomorrow for the Cats because a loss will drop the Cats into a virtual losers bracket in the SEC Tournament. Therefore the #3 seed is the prize for victory tomorrow afternoon.

On Wednesday night, the Cats toyed with Mississippi for about 30 minutes before finally putting the away for a 18 point win in the Cats’ last game at Rupp this season. It would have been more reassuring about the Cats’ prospects tomorrow at Florida if they had continued their recent highly efficient play, but the team’s game efficiency slipped some against Mississippi, and the team also slipped behind Florida as now the 4th highest ANE in the SEC.

Florida’s 19-11, 10-7 record has produced an ANE of 0.201 ppp (#23) by playing a schedule with a strength of 0.1065 ppp (#10). The Cats’ 21-9, 10-7 record has produced an ANE of 0.192 ppp (#28) by playing a schedule with a strength of 0.1059 ppp (#12). The ANE analysis gives the edge to Florida by 5 points, 75-70, in a game played at a pace of 73 possessions. Pomeroy has Florida favored by 4, 74-70 with a pace of 68 possessions. Vegas opened today with Florida a 5 point favorite.

Use the following link to see how other UK fans handicap this game at 247Sports, The Cats Pause message board:

http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2017-18DataandWritings/247_PREDICTIONS/31_Predictions.png

You can participate in the score prediction contest at 247Sports at the following link:

https://kentucky.247sports.com/Board/296/Contents/Florida-Prediction-Thread-115684420

2 comments

  1. Analysis:

    UK scored its 67 points on 64 possessions (1.047 ppp) for the game, and FLORIDA scored its 80 points on 64 possessions (1.250 ppp).

    Kentucky won the battle of the boards, with a rebounding edge 36-34, and Kentucky controlled the offensive glass 16-12. Kentucky used its 16 second chance possessions to score 9 second chance points, and FLORIDA used its 12 second chance possessions to score 4 second chance points. FLORIDA had an offensive efficiency of 1.188 ppp on its 64 first chance possessions and 0.333 ppp for its 12 second chance possessions. UK had 0.906 ppp on its 64 first chance possessions and 0.562 ppp on its 16 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 42.1% of its misses as offensive rebounds while FLORIDA was able to convert 37.5% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

    UK made 13-22 (59.1%) from the free throw line in this game. FLORIDA made 14-20 [70.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 24-58 overall [41.4%] and 6-16 from long range [37.5%]. For Florida, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 18-33[54.5%] and from long range, FLORIDA hit 10-24 [41.7%].

    The Cats committed 13 turnovers, one for every 4.9 possessions. The Cats forced 12 FLORIDA turnovers, one for every 6.4 possessions.

    Next Game On Schedule: This game completes the regular season schedule. The Cats will play next in the SEC Tournament at a time and day to be determined by the end of the Arkansas-Missouri game that starts at 6 pm.

  2. Now we have to see if Missouri will help us out.

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