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Numbers favor Kentucky by 5 points

Hamidou Diallo (Vicky Graff Photo)

Editor’s Note: Richard Cheeks’ analysis does not factor into play an injury like the one Jarred Vanderbilt has with his pregame statistical analysis.

By RICHARD CHEEKS, Contributing Writer

Despite ending the regular season with a loss at Florida last Saturday, the Cats earned the #4 Seed in this weekend’s SEC Tournament when Missouri stopped Arkansas on Saturday evening. But for a loss to Georgia in the second round of the SEC Tournament, Missouri could have been the Cats’ first post season opponent. But, it would not be so.

Since last Saturday, the Cats have lost, at least temporarily, the services of Jarred Vanderbilt due to an ankle injury sustained in Practice on Tuesday. The UK statement on Jarred Vanderbilt’s condition is he is day-to-day, but most do not expect him to see action Friday. This is a serious loss for the Cats as they begin their “second season.” Despite the rust, his high motor coupled with his game developing with his experience lifted the quality of the Cats’ play. A direct comparison of the team’s ANE for the 17 games prior to his return (0.171 ppp) to the team’s ANE for the 14 games since his return (0.195 ppp), it is clear that his impact on this team has been significant and measurable.

In Georgia’s game on Thursday against Missouri, the Bulldogs from Athens, Georgia avenged a 12 point loss at Missouri by beating the Tigers by 12 points in the SEC Tournament’s second round game. The Dawgs advanced to the second round after an impressive 16 point win over Vanderbilt in the first round of the tournament. Therefore, a red hot Georgia team will be playing its 3rd game in less than 48 hours when it takes the floor on Friday afternoon to face a well-rested, albeit a Vanderbilt-less, group of Kentucky Wildcats.

The Cats faced the Dawgs in their first SEC game of the 2018 season, getting a very difficult 5 point win at Rupp. Georgia finished the regular season with a 16-14, 7-11 record, including losing 3 of their last 4 games, and 6 of their last 9. However, in the post season they advanced to the SEC Quarterfinals with a 2 game winning streak playing very solid basketball in the process.

Georgia’s 18-14 record has produced an ANE of 0.126 ppp (#65) by playing a schedule with a strength of 0.1030 ppp (#15). The Cats’ 21-10 record has produced an ANE of 0.188 ppp (#29) by playing a schedule with a strength of 0.1095 ppp (#10). The ANE analysis gives the edge to Kentucky by 5 points, 73-68, in a game played at a pace of 70 possessions. Pomeroy has Kentucky favored by 5, 70-65 with a pace of 65 possessions.

Use the following link to see how other UK fans handicap this game at 247Sports, The Cats Pause message board:

http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2017-18DataandWritings/247_PREDICTIONS/32_Predictions.png

You can participate in the score prediction contest at 247Sports at the following link:

https://kentucky.247sports.com/Board/296/Contents/SEC-Tournament-Quarterfinals-Prediction-Thread-Georgia-or-UGA-115807275

2 comments

  1. Analysis:

    UK scored its 62 points on 58 possessions (1.069 ppp) for the game, and GEORGIA scored its 49 points on 57 possessions (0.860 ppp).

    Georgia won the battle of the boards, with a rebounding edge 42-39, and Georgia controlled the offensive glass 16-12. Kentucky used its 12 second chance possessions to score 2 second chance points, and GEORGIA used its 16 second chance possessions to score 9 second chance points. GEORGIA had an offensive efficiency of 0.702 ppp on its 57 first chance possessions and 0.563 ppp for its 16 second chance possessions. UK had 1.035 ppp on its 58 first chance possessions and 0.167 ppp on its 12 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 31.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while GEORGIA was able to convert 37.2% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

    UK made 5-10 (50.0%) from the free throw line in this game. GEORGIA made 13-21 [61.9%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 26-61 overall [42.6%] and 5-17 from long range [29.4%]. For Georgia, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 9-30 [30.0%] and from long range, GEORGIA hit 6-23 [26.1%].

    The Cats committed 5 turnovers, one for every 11.6 possessions. The Cats forced 11 GEORGIA turnovers, one for every 5.2 possessions.

    Next Game On Schedule: The Cats will play next in the SEC Tournament Semifinal on Saturday afternoon at about 1 PM against Alabama.

  2. As a point of explanation regarding the impact that Vanderbilt’s absence (or any other player for that matter) has on the analysis. I have observed over many years that injuries to players, or their return to action generally has no measurable impact on the team’s average overall performance While I could attempt to adjust a team’s statistical profile in recognition of these type of personnel issues, I decided quite some time ago that it is not worth the effort.

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