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What is minimum win number in 2018 for Stoops to keep job in 2019?

Mark Stoops. (Vicky Graff Photo)

By LARRY VAUGHT

Vaughtsviews.com contributor Richard Cheeks has a way of analyzing statistical information that I truly cannot comprehend. But he also has a realistic approach for being such a die-hard UK fan.

Recently he sent me this email that I definitely thought was worth sharing:

“I would be curious to see a poll of UK football fans:  What is the minimum number of wins UK must get in 2018 for coach Mark Stoops to retain his job in 2019, because I believe the last two seasons have unreasonably  elevated expectations, but particularly last season,” Cheek wrote.

“The results were really fool’s gold when the internal numbers are compared to the number of wins the team got. 

“I believe a lot of fans will bail on Stoops with only five wins and put him squarely on the hot seat going into 2019.  I think a majority of fans will turn on Stoops if this team only wins three, or even four games this season.   If that happens, pressure will mount for Mith Barnhart to make another change. 

“With six wins, his job security remain as it is today, but not improving.  That leaves Stoops just one disastrous season from peril.  Seven or more wins in 2018 should solidify his position for two or three more seasons.

“I do not like football coaching changes for UK because I believe UK faces a long term building program, and stability at the head coaching position is necessary to get through that process.  Changing coaches means starting over for this program. 

“I also believe Stoops is the consummate football man, and he has upgraded the roster and I still believe he will upgrade the quality of play on the field.  But, a three or four win season in 2018 will be difficult for him to survive.”

 

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  1. Kentucky can’t stockpile 5!star players like Alabama or Georgia so the margin for error when a key player gets hurt or leaves is much smaller. I think talent level and depth has increased exponentially sine Stoops arrived but the team can’t cant sustain losing several starters. I believe we will see a lot of improvement all around this year but they may still only win 6!or 7 Games.

  2. https://www.poll-maker.com/poll1969720x034F21d8-53

    Participate in the straw poll on this topic at the link above.

  3. It’s time for players, coaches and administration to show some loyalty and commitment to one another and the university. Until that happens over the long term, a mediocre bowl game at the end of the year is the very best we can expect.

  4. I don’t see 6 wins in 2018 on this schedule. I hate to say that, but I just don’t. If Stoops goes below 6 wins in 2018, the road ahead gets very rocky for him IMO. That said, I believe he survives through 2019 because of the amount of money it would take to buy him out.

    I am a long time UK football fan first and foremost, and Stoops has recruited fairly well, but not nearly well enough to be competitive in the top tier of the SEC, and that with much improved facilities, etc. at a great cost. Also, UK starts the 2018 slate without a proven QB for example. Also, In watching Coach Stoops the past 5 years, and hearing him speak publicly about football in general, I am not overly impressed with his football acumen, especially offensive football. His defense has been weak every year he has been here, and he is supposed to be a great defensive coach. That said, I always believe in UK every year until the losses pile up against teams they should beat. This has happened way to much under Mark Stoops. This 2018 schedule is a very important one for sure. I hope he turns UK around, and improves in the SEC standings, and not only goes bowling, but finds a way to win a bowl game. Do that and I know he survives. He is being paid very well to coach winning football at Kentucky, all these coaches are and ticket prices keep going up.

  5. I see between 4-6 wins next year, with no bowl game. I think Stoops knows football, but I don’t think he knows how to hire assistants. Most of his assistants seem to be able to recruit, but that is only half the job. Too many times, UK seems to be shell shocked at certain points in the games; either they are not prepared, or they fall apart late in the games. I have not seen this coaching staff make “great” or even good adjustments during games. It seems to be the total opposite. As for qb, UK had plenty of chances last year to let Hoak take some snaps and get his feet wet to prepare this year, but Stoops never does that with any backup qb. UK needs to be able to play a lot of young players and help them improve for long term success, but I haven’t seen that happening with this coaching staff. Yes, they have played a lot of young players, but I don’t see many of them improving.

  6. Too early in the season to guarantee, but I am hoping I can accept at least 6 wins but I would like them to avoid being blown out of any games or losing ones we were supposed to win which is a Stoop’s trademark. He has elevated recruiting for UK but continues to fall short with player development and attrition. I am not sure about his coaching acumen because still too many “deer in headlights” looks during every season.

  7. I hate to be negative, but IMO, Stoops is not the answer for UK football to be competitive in the SEC. He has promised too much, been paid too much, and delivered to little. I don’t know who is the guy for KY, but Stoops is not that guy.

    1. Art Briles. Built Baylor from the ground up. He knows offensive football. A winning coach where ever he has been. A Texas high school football legend They never proved anything on Briles. He is a good football coach who is looking for work. If Stoops can’t elevate UK in 2018, cut him loose and get a football coach that has been a successful head football coach. Briles deserves a second chance. He is a good man.

  8. I agree Pup. Stoops has had time to get his coaches, players, and system in place. This should be the step up year. Step up or move on. I would have no problem looking at Briles as a possible candidate for Stoops replacement if that comes to be.

    1. I think the table was set for UK last year. They will never have a better chance than they did in 2017 to get 8 or 9 wins, and they blew it. I don’t see UK winning 6 games in 2018. The loss of Ware, a defensive starter. and now Walker in the secondary, and depth suffers a big blow. the loss of a good starting QB, and the lack of a proven QB this year does not bode well either in this league. Plus the schedule is not as easy with games on the road against UF, UT, Louisville for starters. UK was very fortunate to beat UT last year, UT was at the goal line when time ran out, and that UT team was getting beat by everybody. They will be ready for UK in Knoxville with Pruett at the helm I do believe. UK better come to play that ball game for sure. All of those teams have UK’s number, especially the Gators. I know I am being very negative here, but it’s time for Stoops to start beating some teams he ain’t supposed too beat. I am getting too old, and have watched UK football be dominated for way too long to be nice. Who can ever forget the loss last year against Florida, a game they should have won to break the streak. The Louisville loss, and the way UK lost, was a disgrace. Many AD’s in this league would have fired Stoops after that loss alone.

  9. I think I asked the wrong question.

    https://www.sitelistener.com/poll1970596x26604299-53

    In the original poll, I asked how many wins would be required to keep Coach Stoops in good standing with the BBN, and I only offered 4 choices, which I believed would span the likely range of answers. Wrong! Some subsequent posts indicate a need for higher numbers than I provided, and the grouping of 73% of all responses at the lowest possible choice suggests that some people may have answered with lower numbers, given those choices.

    My bad.

    Let’s start with a new question: How many wins do you expect UK Football to deliver in the regular season in 2018? Available answers cover the gamet, 0 to 12.

    Thanks.

  10. I had hoped for a broader response to this question. There were nearly 250 votes to the original poll and 23 to this one. Nevertheless, here are the results:

    10 wins 5%
    9 or more wins 10%
    8 or more wins 43%
    7 or more wins 57%
    6 or more wins 86%

    4 or 5 wins 14%

    The vast majority of those who participated believe the 2018 UK football team will win 6 or more and go bowling for the third consecutive year. I also detected strong sentiment based on posts in the two threads that 6 wins would not be acceptable, and some set that threshold at 7 wins. But that does not square with the other poll, with 235 voters. The second question was “How many wins in 2018 are necessary for Coach Stoops to retain the confidence of the BBN?”

    In this poll, 162 of the 235 voters (69%) said that 3 wins would put Coach Stoops on the hot seat. Only 14% said that a 6 win season would put Coach Stoops on the hot seat.

    I am not sure how these results reconcile.

    Any thoughts on how to reconcile these results?

  11. I think the polls show that the majority of fans who participated in the two polls have not lost faith in Mark Stoops. If Stoops wins 6 or 7 games and goes to another bowl game he is in like Flynn. If he falls below 6 wins he could be in serious trouble. That is the way I see it.

    1. On the trouble poll, 69% said it would take 3 wins, not 4, to put Stoops in trouble, or 31% said some number of wins higher than 3, and of that 31%, 14% said only 6 wins would cause them to jump ship.

      I was surprised by that result somewhat because I thought a larger number of fans would have jumped the Stoops’ ship with only 5 or even 4 wins this season.

      6 wins puts Stoops in trouble: 14%
      5 wins puts Stoops in trouble: 29%
      4 wins puts Stoops in trouble: 31%
      3 wins puts Stoops in trouble: 100%

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