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Number favor Kentucky by only 4 points over UNC Greensboro

Reid Travis (Vicky Graff Photo)

By RICHARD CHEEKS, Contributing Writer

On Wednesday night, the Cats we had expected to see from the beginning finally made an appearance at Rupp Arena and when all the dust settled on the game against Monmouth, the Cats overwhelmed the Hawks by 46 points, 90-44. This level of performance was a very welcome sight. For the first time this season, the Cats turned in a full 40 minutes of domination.

However, November’s schedule is completed, and on Saturday the Cats make their first appearance for their five game December schedule. UNC Greensboro enters the game at Rupp as the #52 ranked ANE team. This is quite a step up in the quality of competition from #328 Monmouth, #302 VMI, and #280 North Dakota.

Greensboro brings a 7-1 record into Rupp Arena on Saturday. The Spartans’ only loss occurred in their second game of the year at #55 LSU by 6 points. However, Greensboro next toughest opponent has been against #115 Louisiana Tech on a neutral court, and Greensboro won that game by 7. Two of the Greensboro wins have come at the expense of non-D1 opponents Johnson & Wales and Greensboro.

The Greensboro body of work against D1 opponents has produced an ANE of 0.143 points per possession. The 46 point win on Wednesday night raised UK’s ANE from the 0.085 ppp it had entering the Monmouth game to 0.147 ppp entering the Greensboro game on Saturday. That surge, propelled by the Monmouth blowout, gives UK slimmest statistical edge over the Spartans if they were playing at a neutral location.

The Rupp home court advantage elevates the edge for the Cats to 4-point favorite, 79-75, in a game played at a pace of 72 possessions. Pomeroy projects a 11 point Kentucky win over Greensboro, 81-70, at a pace of about 70 possessions. The primary focus on this game against UNC Greensboro is whether the final margin is 15 or more, or a dreaded loss.

See how other UK fans handicap this game at 247Sports, The Cats Pause message board at:

http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2018-19DataandWritings/247_PREDICTIONS/08.htm

You can participate in the score prediction contest at 247Sports at the following link:

https://247sports.com/college/kentucky/Board/296/Contents/Greensboro-Prediction-Thread-125544837/#M125654267

1 comment

  1. Analysis:

    UK scored its 78 points on 71 possessions (1.099 ppp) for the game, and GREENSBORO scored its 61 points on 71 possessions (0.859 ppp).

    Kentucky won the battle of the boards, with a rebounding edge 46-30, and Kentucky won the battle of the offensive glass 15-12. GREENSBORO used its 12 second chance possessions to score 12 second chance points, and Kentucky used its 15 second chance possessions to 13 second chance points. GREENSBORO had an offensive efficiency of 0.690 ppp on its 71 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 12 second chance possessions. UK had 0.915 ppp on its 71 first chance possessions and 0.867 ppp on its 15 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 45.5%of its misses as offensive rebounds while GREENSBORO was able to convert 27.4% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

    UK hit well from the free throw line in this game, making 17-24 [70.8%]. GREENSBORO made 6-10 [60.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 28-58 overall [48.3%] and 5-12 from long range [41.7%]. For GREENSBORO, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 17-47 [36.2%] and from long range, GREENSBORO hit 7-20 [35.0%].

    The Cats committed 17 turnovers, one for every 4.2 possessions. The Cats forced 11 GREENSBORO turnovers, one for every 6.5 possessions.

    Next Game On Schedule: Saturday afternoon, at MSG against Seton Hall in the ninth regular season game of the 2018-19 season.

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