By RICHARD CHEEKS, Contributing Writer
Kentucky will play its fifth SEC road game out of its first 7 conference games of the season today. After this trip to Gainesville to face the Gators, the Cats will have 10 SEC games remaining in the regular season, and 6 of those 10 games will occur at Rupp.
The Cats continue their current 2 game road trip after delivering a poleaxing at Vanderbilt on Tuesday. The 35-point road win is the most efficient game by the Cats this season, and over their last 5 games, this team has played four of its 7 most efficient games of the season.
This is prima facia evidence that this team has been taking its game to a new high level over the last 5 games. The Cats have started the SEC with an impressive 6-1 record despite the majority of the games having been on the road.
Today’s game will be Florida’s fifth SEC home game in their first eight games, and the Gators’ SEC record is 4-3, and 12-8 overall. The Gators’ most impressive win this season occurred on Wednesday when they defeated #41 Mississippi in Gainesville by 4 points in overtime. Florida’s most confusing loss occurred by 2 points to #112 South Carolina in Gainesville.
While Kentucky has been on fire their last five games, the Gators have been playing slightly below their season long average efficiency their last five games.
The Gators’ schedule has a SOS value of 0.0814 ppp (#21). The Florida ANE for the season stands at 0.195 ppp and their ANE over the last 5 games is 0.184 ppp.
The Cats’ schedule has a SOS value of 0.0577 ppp (#41). The Cats’ ANE for the season stands at 0.258 ppp, their season ANE since game 8 has been 0.358 ppp, and their ANE over the last 5 games is 0.438 ppp.
The ANE analysis based on Kentucky’s ANE since game 7 indicates a Kentucky margin of 7 points, 74-67, in a game played at a pace of 67 possessions. As a matter of record, the traditional ANE analysis indicates a 2-point Kentucky advantage (78-69), and a “last 5” analysis indicates a UK win by 13 points, 73-60.
Pomeroy has this game as 2 points in Kentucky’s favor, 64-62, at a pace of 64 possessions. Vegas has opened with the Cats a 2 ½ point favorite over the Gators.
Use the following link to see how other UK fans handicap this game at 247Sports, The Cats Pause message board:
You can participate in the score prediction contest at 247Sports at the following link: