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Numbers favor Cats by 9 over Lamar tonight

Immanuel Quickley (Jeff Houchin Photo)

By RICHARD CHEEKS, Contributing Writer

On Friday night, the Cats experienced a tale of two halves against Mount. St. Mary’s at Rupp. In the first half, the Cats allowed a clearly inferior opponent to stay in the game, matching the Cats nearly basket for basket, point for point until the Cats eased out to a fragile 5-point lead, 39-34, in the final 3 minutes of the first half.

In the second half, the Cats opened with a 10-2 run on their way to a 43-28 margin in the second half. The first half was akin to the way these Cats played against Evansville and Utah Valley while the second half was akin to the way these Cats played against EKU.

For the first time this season, the game ANE against Mount St. Mary’s was sufficiently higher than the previous game to increase the season average ANE for the team, thus halting the 4 game slide that marks the beginning of the 2019-20 season. However, the average ANE improvement was marginal. While the Cats managed to stop the plummeting ANE of the first 4 games, the evidence is not yet enough to conclude that this team is ready to play at the substantially higher game ANE levels to return to the conversation about a deep March run. This evening, these young Cats can make such a statement on this point when they face Lamar.

Yes, the Cats now stand at 4-1 with an Adjusted Net Efficiency (ANE) of 0.14 points per possession (ppp) against a schedule strength of -0.051 ppp. The Cats’ average tempo remains about 71 possessions per game.

#117 Lamar has played five games, three against D1 opposition with a 2-1 record in those games. The Cardinals lost at #96 Duquense by 10, beat the same Mount St. Mary’s team at home by 15, and won at #197 Utah Valley by 6. These games produced an ANE of 0.071 ppp against a schedule strength of 0.016 ppp. Lamar will bring the highest ANE into this game against the Cats since Michigan State.

Based on this early season data for these teams, an ANE analysis indicates this game will have a tempo of 72 possessions with the Cats prevailing by 9 points, 74-65.

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  1. My how the mighty have fallen since MSU.

    1. The mighty have fallen – And who are the mighty?

  2. I have watched these things for decades and the vast majority of years, the way a team starts a season (first 5 to 8 games) defines how they will finish the season.

    1. Professor you have jump the gun on this team too quick such an early season and yo u think otherwise. Shame on you. This team will prove you are wrong along with Catmandoo and Mike.

  3. As embarrassing as this season has been so far, the verdict is still out on the rest of the season. Our December games should be a pretty good indicator of what this team is going to do. No more excuses…its time to win.

    1. Embarrassing-One loss?

      1. Pay no attention to Catmandoo’s nonsense.
        He suffers from an acute case of CDS.

  4. A national championship contender should beat this Lamar team by 20+ points and a 30+ win over this Lamar team would not surprise me from a contender.

    We shall see what we see again tonight.

    1. 25 point victory for UK, LOL. ON On UK!!!

      1. RAH RAH…GO BIG BLUE !!!

  5. You know your program is on the skids when it gets pre-empted by a womens volleyball game. I guess Rupp Arena must have more empty seats than full.

    1. On the skids? You are full of crap!

      1. Catmandoo1000, i. e. “Mr. Spartan” is a legend in his own mind CU@Final4. Glad to have another real fan join the fight against Mr. Inside Scoop. LOL. By the way, his days on this site are dwindling. Ask Hornet1.

    2. Were you at the game ?

  6. Analysis:

    UK scored its 81 points in a total of 66 possessions (1.227 ppp) for the game, and Lamar scored its 56 points on a total of 67 possessions (0.886 ppp).

    Kentucky won the battle of the boards, with a rebounding edge 41-34, but Lamar won the battle of the offensive glass 14-10. Kentucky used its 10 second chance possessions to score 8 second chance points while LAMAR used its 14 second chances to score 3 points. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a season poor 33.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Lamar was able to convert 31.3% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

    UK made 13-19 [68.4%] from the free throw line. Lamar made 7-15 [46.7%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 29-57 overall [50.9%] and 10-22 from long range [45.5%]. For Lamar, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 14-47 [29.8%] and from long range, Lamar hit 7-17 [41.2%).

    The Cats committed 11 turnovers, one for every 6.0 possessions. The Cats forced 10 Lamar turnovers, one for every 6.7 possessions.

    Next Game On Schedule: Friday night against UAB in the seventh game of the 2019-20 regular season.

  7. Well it came out as a 20 plus win and always your guys jump the gun. This team will prove you guys in the long run there better what you think including you professor.

  8. This was a solid 40 minutes of basketball by this team, and 3 consecutive solid halves of basketball.

    1. Agree. Glad that I did not cancel my hotel reservation in Catlanta in April!

  9. Good to hear you say that Professor. Just don’t come to conclusions what this team is way too early.

    1. Statistical base gets more reliable after a few games ??

  10. Cats79, I really do hope this team comes together. They still need to play inside out…Nick only got 9 shots…he should get 12 to 15 shots a game. That would really help both Nate and EJ’s game too, but in true Calipari fashion, our guards are going to dominate the shot chart. That can win a bunch of games, IF they are hitting those shots like tonight. It can also lose a lot of games when the shots aren’t falling. Our December schedule should give us a pretty good idea of what to expect in SEC play. No more Popcorn States to pummel, struggle with, or lose to.

    1. “Nick only got 9 shots “ Wow – Result =Double-Double Have you ever heard of a double double? Probably not because you only focus the negative. I am sick & tired of your crap.

      1. Nick and EJ should be getting 10-15 points every game. Nick is finally showing some maturity. but not sure EJ has yet to get the memo. He doesn’t seem to really have the “want to” Nate has got to be taking more than 2-3 shots a game, and he needs to regain his confidence. Jebari Juzang may need some psych intervention. You have to feel sorry for the struggles but know it must be coming from between the ears.

    2. Catmandoo, “Mr. Spartan” if Cal did what you suggest most of the time he would be 0-5 right now. The game is changing due to big guards with length and athleticism. A blind man could see it. Besides, how many points did Nick get at the rim on passes and lobs? You are dumb enough to get on here and run down Coach and his players after a performance like last night? You are showing your A$$ dude. Take my challenge, let’s see if you have the stomach for it.

  11. 5-1 Mike, I mean “Mr. Cardinal.” I think Nick was about 3 blocks short of a triple double. EJ’s game is improving big time. The dribble drive with three guards on the floor is working just fine. The outside shots were falling, and UK rolled. You taking my challenge Big mouth? How about you Catmandoo1000 alias “Mr. Spartan?” Let’s do it girls.

    1. Did anyone say that Nick hasn’t been improving? I am very happy with his performance last 3 games, and am glad he is finally able to embrace my coaching..Rah Rah. So Pup who has the better FB coach? We will know in 5 days won’t we? I am rooting for Cats to win but think UL has a great chance because not one dimensional and have coaching staff that makes adjustments on the fly and like pedal to metal when they get the chance. Go Cats!

      1. 5-1 Mike, I mean “Mr. Cardinal.” You have trashed Coach, Nick, EJ, and the entire team ever chance you get in the past, and recently. You taking my basketball challenge Mr. Cardinal?

        1. Who has better FB coach Pup? Satterfield turned around a total train wreck in first year. What did Stoops do in first year?
          Duped by Gran/Hinshaw. Where is qb development?

          1. Spoken like a true Cardinal, with your double talk. I think Stoops is a better defensive minded coach, but I think Satterfield may be a better offensive coach. Only time will tell who is the overall better head coach for each program. Like who can recruit talent, motivate, coaching hires, etc. Also, you have to look at more than just one game, and consider games played over a period of time, to make that assessment. Satterfield has far exceeded the Louisville pre season expectations with the results he has accomplished in 2019. But Stoops has made UK much better in so many ways, especially on defense, accomplishing bowl eligibility after so much adversity in 2019.

            Now, don’t change the subject, take my basketball challenge Mr. Cardinal, any guts? All I get is silence from you and the “Mr. Spartan.”

  12. Pup….agree with your first 2 statements. Will give the defensive edge to Stoops, but he is handicapped by having Gran. It took Stoops over 6 yrs to get to .500 and it took Satterfield 1 yr. Could another UT (ownership) be residing in Louisville?

    1. Satterfield had talent already there, because Petrino could recruit. Stoops took over a completely ravished program, and built it into a winner. You want to play “Russian Roulette?” If UK loses to UL Sat. in football, I leave this site for one whole year. It UL loses Sat, you leave. You’re a big Satterfield fan now. You on?

      1. Fact checker just stated you are incorrect again. Petrino’s recruiting tailed off toward end of tenure. Satterfield inherited a talent-less train wreck.

        1. I’m saying, his talent level was not as depleted as Stoops faced at UK in year 2013. To say UL had no talent is silly. You on?

          1. Silence on the football deal I see. So, I am assuming you are on for the basketball challenge based on your post on 11/25 at 1:32 pm? Spelled out is is, if UK beats Louisville in basketball this year, you are out of here for a year. If UK loses to Louisville, I’m out for a year, right? I will consider it confirmed in the Cheek article entitled “Are The Cats ready For Louisville? Numbers Say Yes.”….. Where you posted “Any requests for your going away party? The question is when not if.”

            Cats79, Hornet1, CU@ Final4..if you guys read this, hold “Mr. Cardinal” to the fire. I will keep my end of this challenge.

            • HORNET1 on November 25, 2019 at 3:23 pm

            Me thinks Mike is not a betting man when it comes to betting on the birds. I can’t say that I blame him, although I would like to see him man-up and take the bet.

      2. You in on this Catmandoo1000, Mr Spartan? Come on man, here is your chance to rid this site of my “UK all the way” posts for a whole year. According to you, UK is a loser in roundball anyway. Stoops and Gran are in over their heads, and our HOF basketball head man is a fraud, all according to you. Why you should be biting at the bit. How many times has Calipari already beaten Louisville in 10 years? Any idea? This challenge should be easy for you, since UK is such a weak sister now in basketball under Calipari, and weak in the SEC, again according to you. MY challenge is much easier than Hornet1’s challenge, by far. All UK has to do in this challenge for you to win is lose to the No. 2 ranked team in the land on Dec 28. Why you been popping off about the UK program going down on this here site under Cal for as long as I can remember. You want the football deal instead? Your choice. Your buddy Mr. Cardinal…. Mike, has apparently stepped to the plate and has taken the challenge. Come on man, as you say, man up.

  13. H1….I probably would be willing to put your money on the birds. Birds by FG end of game?

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