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Numbers favor Arkansas by 5 points over Cats

By RICHARD CHEEKS, Contributing Writer

The season has passed the ½ way mark with a loss at South Carolina on Wednesday night. Now, the Cats continue their mid-season two game trip with a game in Fayetteville, Arkansas against a group of hogs that have been playing very good basketball this season.

We recall that the two game Las Vegas junket last month ended with a pair of losses, and a repeat of the 0-2 trip now would carry very serious impact upon the Cats’ standing in the SEC race.

Arkansas enters this game with an 14-2 record, 3-1 in the SEC. Arkansas won its first 8 games before stumbling at #106 Western Kentucky by 7 points in OT. The Hogs have won 6 of their 7 games since, losing at #24 LSU by 2. Arkansas’s most impressive wins thus far this season have been over Rice with a game ANE of 0.49 ppp and over #52 Indiana with a game ANE of 0.34 ppp.

Arkansas’s weakest games this season have been against #178 Austin Peay with a game ANE of 0.02 ppp and against #166 Valparaiso with a game ANE of 0.01 ppp, each in a winning effort. Arkansas’s current ANE is an 0.202 ppp against a schedule strength of 0.021 ppp and a tempo of 71.7 possessions per game.

The Cats bring an ANE of 0.195 ppp into this game having played a schedule strength of 0.013 ppp at a tempo of 69.9 possessions per game.

Based on this data for these teams, an ANE analysis indicates this game will have a tempo of 71 possessions with the Cats falling by 5 points, 66-71

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  1. Analysis:

    UK scored its 73 points on 71 possessions (1.028 ppp) for the game, and ARKANSAS scored its 66 points on 73possessions (0.904 ppp).

    Kentucky won the battle of the boards 47-29, and Kentucky controlled the offensive glass 12-8 which produced a 14-9 advantage on second chance points for the Cats. ARKANSAS had an offensive efficiency of 0.781 ppp on its 73 first chance possessions and 1.125 ppp for its 8 second chance possessions. UK had 0.831 ppp on its 71 first chance possessions and 1.167 ppp on its 12 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 36.4%of its misses as offensive rebounds while ARKANSAS was able to convert 18.6% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

    UK hit well from the free throw line in this game, making 20-27 [74.1%]. ARKANSAS made 20-30 [66.7%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 24-54 overall [44.4%] and 5-14 from long range [35.7%]. For Arkansas, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 11-31 [35.5%] and from long range, ARKANSAS hit 8-26 [30.8%].

    The Cats committed 16 turnovers, one for every 4.4 possessions. The Cats forced 12 ARKANSAS turnovers, one for every 6.1 possessions.

    Next Game On Schedule: Tuesday night at Rupp against Georgias in the Cats’ eighteenth regular season game, and the 6th game of the 2020 SEC season.

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