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Numbers favor Cats by 6 at South Carolina

Ashton Hagans (Vicky Graff Photo)

By RICHARD CHEEKS, Contributing Writer

The Cats have completed half of their 31-game regular season schedule with a 12-3 record and a 3-0 start in the SEC. The next challenge for the Cats will take the form of a two game SEC road swing, first at South Carolina tonight and then at Arkansas on Saturday.

The formula for winning conference championships is to hold serve in the nine home games and win a majority of the nine conference road games. To stay on pace with this formula, the Cats need at least one win from this two-game road trip, and frankly a pair of wins would go a long way toward another SEC regular season title in 2020.

South Carolina enters this game with an 8-7 record, 0-2 in the SEC. After a 8-4 start that ended with back to back road wins at #80 Clemson by 13 and at #19 Virginia by 11, the Gamecocks have lost their last three games.

South Carolina’s most impressive wins this season have been over Clemson with a game ANE of 0.36 ppp and over Virginia with a game ANE of 0.48 ppp. Among South Carolina’s seven losses, the most inexplicable loss came at home against #305 Stetson by seven with a game ANE of -0.31 ppp.

South Carolina’s current ANE is an impressive 0.057 ppp against a schedule strength of 0.013 ppp and a tempo of 71.0 possessions per game.

The Cats bring an ANE of 0.199 ppp into this game having played a schedule strength of 0.028 ppp at a tempo of 69.5 possessions per game.

Based on this data for these teams, an ANE analysis indicates this game will have a tempo of 70 possessions with the Cats winning by six points, 71-65.

2 comments

  1. Even know we our chances cats deserved to get beat. Gamecocks came to play in that second half they were faster and we were slower for some reason

  2. Analysis:

    UK scored its 78 points on 75 possessions (1.040 ppp) for the game, and SOUTH CAROLINA scored its 81 points on 74 possessions (1.095 ppp).

    South Carolina won the battle of the boards 42-41, and South Carolina controlled the offensive glass 20-10 which produced a 16-10 advantage on second chance points for the Gamecocks. SOUTH CAROLINA had an offensive efficiency of 0.878 ppp on its 74 first chance possessions and 0.800 ppp for its 20 second chance possessions. UK had 0.907 ppp on its 75 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 10 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 31.3%of its misses as offensive rebounds while SOUTH CAROLINA was able to convert 39.2% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

    UK hit poorly from the free throw line in this game, making 25-36 [69.4%]. SOUTH CAROLINA made 16-30 [53.3%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 24-55 overall [43.6%] and 5-15 from long range [33.3%]. For South Carolina, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 22-54 [40.7%] and from long range, SOUTH CAROLINA hit 7-19 [36.8%].

    The Cats committed 15 turnovers, one for every 5.0 possessions. The Cats forced 9 SOUTH CAROLINA turnovers, one for every 8.2 possessions.

    Next Game On Schedule: Saturday afternoon at Arkansas in the Cats’ seventeenth regular season game, and the 5th game of the 2020 SEC season.

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